Why Do Political Leaders Promote Conspiracy Theories?
Six ways that politicians — like Donald Trump — use conspiratorial claims for power and personal gain.
Much of the psychological research on conspiracy theories to date has focused on trying to explain why people believe them. But unlike the idiosyncratic and unshared nature of delusional thinking that’s based on faith in subjective personal experience, conspiracy theory beliefs aren’t typically the product of individuals coming up with conspiracy theories on their own [1]. Despite the stereotype of a “conspiracy theorist” connecting the dots on a bulletin board with pieces of string in some basement while wearing a tin-foil helmet, they aren’t so much theorizing as they are “doing their own research” by actively searching for information, often online. In that sense, we should consider replacing the term “conspiracy theorist” with “conspiracy theist” [2].
As information that’s out there in the world, we should also recognize that conspiracy theories aren’t only narratives that we find or hear; they’re stories that we’re told. And while some doing the telling may be done by bona fide “conspiracy theorists” in the traditional sense, others spread or create conspiracy theories as disinformation based on their known falsehood for personal profit that includes financial gain and power. Harvard Law Professor Cass Sunstein calls those who peddle in conspiracy theories “conspiracy entrepreneurs” [3] while Pitzer College philosopher Brian Keely more bluntly calls them “conspiracy liars” [4].
For politicians, conspiracy theories can serve as propaganda that exploits the psychological needs of a voting populace. While Donald Trump is by no means the only politician to have ever used conspiracy theories for political purposes and won’t be the last, he nonetheless provides a timely and familiar example to understand why political leaders — and especially those with authoritarian tendencies — often exploit conspiracy theories to their own ends [5].
Here are six ways that politicians use conspiracy theories for personal gain along with examples of how Trump has used them over the past decade:
1. To malign opponents
Conspiracy theories — which are typically based on rumor or circumstantial evidence at best — can serve to cast aspersions on one’s opponents. Before he ever threw his hat into the political ring in 2014, Trump was a promoter-in-chief of the “birther” conspiracy that claimed that Barack Obama wasn’t born in the US. Later, during the 2016 primaries when he ran for president, he claimed that Senator Ted Cruz’s father was an affiliate of JFK’s assassin, Lee Harvey Oswald. While running against Hillary Clinton, he claimed that an Obama-led FBI — the so-called “Deep State” — was actively working to sabotage his election.
Despite their falsity, the illusory truth effect and the innuendo effects can make such claims quite convincing — in 2016, surveys found that some 40% of Republicans believed the birther conspiracy theory [6].
2. To sow mistrust in authoritative sources of information
Portraying reliable sources of information like the free press as biased, unreliable, and untrustworthy is a tried-and-true tactic of authoritarian leaders hoping to convince voters not to believe anything that’s reported in the news — especially negative portrayals of the politician — and to trust them instead. Such claims amount to gaslighting, allowing politicians to deny or refute negative portrayals about them in the news.
Trump has, for years now, labeled journalists “the enemy of the people” while deriding mainstream media (and more recently even Fox News) as the “fake news media” based on the claim that it’s deliberately and falsely maligning him a part of a liberally biased smear campaign.
3. To deflect blame
Conspiracy theories can sometimes act as a distraction that diverts people’s attention away from what a politician is doing. During the first term of his presidency when he was struggling to manage the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump referred to COVID-19 as the “China virus” and “kung flu” while advancing the lab-leak conspiracy theory that it was created in a lab in China (a still possible, but largely unsupported hypothesis that’s refuted by most scientific experts). This shifted attention away from his own handling of the pandemic here in the US to malevolent actors abroad.
In what amounted to a tit-for-tat blame game, Chinese officials advanced their own counter-claim that SARS-CoV-2 was brought to China by Americans during the Military World Games held in Wuhan months before the pandemic started. Russian state media supported this claim as well.
4. To create “us and them” narratives
Politicians running on populist platforms that denounce the political establishment, the news media, and scientific experts as untrustworthy “elites” who are out of touch with the people often use conspiracy theories to portray opposition groups — whether foreign or internal adversaries — as the “enemy.” Trump’s successful 2016 bid for president was based on a such a platform that maligned Democrats and other government officials as part of a “Deep State” intent on destroying the country.
Although he never explicitly promoted broader QAnon conspiracy theory narratives about the Deep State or Hillary Clinton being involved in child pornography, child sex trafficking, or harvesting adrenochrome from children, he was careful not to disavow such claims either. When was asked about QAnon while campaigning in the fall of 2020, he said, “I don’t know much about the movement other than I understand they like me very much, which I appreciate” [7]. In a subsequent town hall, he added, “I know nothing about QAnon, I know very little… I do know they are very much against pedophilia, they fight it very hard” [8].
This time around, Trump’s focus remains focused on the conspiratorial narrative that the Democrat’s “open border” policies are letting in “millions” of immigrants who are stealing American jobs, illegally voting in elections, and perpetrating horrific acts of violence.
5. To portray oneself as a victim or an anti-establishment candidate
Narratives of victimhood — with claims that one is being persecuted by the current government in power, political opponents, the courts, and the press — can be used by politicians to gain sympathy. Indeed, anti-establishment and populist political attitudes are often more potent predictors of conspiracy theory belief than traditional left-right political orientations. Appealing to such sentiments, conspiracy theories can be used to frame a politician as a champion of the people and an outsider, waging a war against the kind of enemies described above.
Trump has repeatedly cast himself as a non-politician promising to “drain the swamp” or as a victim of the establishment, whether during the Mueller investigation “witch-hunt” or any of his subsequent legal difficulties. More recently, in a sit-down with Dr. Phil, he insinuated that his assassination attempt was aided and abetted, if not orchestrated, by his political opponents: “I think to a certain extent it’s Biden’s fault and Harris’ fault. And I’m the opponent. Look, they were weaponizing government against me, they brought in the whole DOJ to try and get me… They’re saying I’m a threat to democracy… that was [a] standard line, just keep saying it, and you know that can get assassins or potential assassins going… Maybe that bullet is because of their rhetoric” [9].
6. To incite or justify violence
If a politician can sell voters on the idea that a war must be waged by “us” against “them” because the country is in peril, then conspiracy theories that dehumanize political opponents (e.g., claiming they’re “child sex-trafficking, Deep State, lizard people”) or suggesting that the political opposition isn’t playing by the rules can provide a rationale to resort to non-normative political behavior including violence.
At the end of his presidency, Trump’s claim that the 2020 election was “stolen” or “rigged” helped to incite the violent protest of January 6, 2021, that was intended to “stop the steal.” It’s a narrative that he continues to push during his current re-election bid.
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As you can see, there’s overlap between the various purposes that conspiracy theories can serve for politicians vying for power. Note also that the veracity of such conspiracy theories — no doubt, there are plenty of Trump supporters who will insist that many of the above claims are true — continue to be endlessly promoted and disputed on either side of the political fence. As theories about conspiracies, they’re not so much false as conjectures about what could be true in the absence of any evidence to prove them [10].
Regardless of their potential truth or falsity however, the end goal of promoting political conspiracy theories is to undermine faith in traditional democratic institutions (e.g., the free press and free elections) and to draw a line between a politician on the one hand and their political opponents, and other adversarial threats on the other. As narratives that portray the opposition party and its voters as dehumanized “others” who are threatening the country and the very existence of its “true people” (e.g., “patriots”), conspiracy theories often amount to an authoritarian power play, fueling a desire for a “strongman” leader willing to take drastic measures to crush the opposition in the name of taking a country to a promising new future or some imagined idyllic past.
References
1. Pierre JM Conspiracy theory belief: A sane response to an insane world? Review of Philosophy and Psychology 2023. DOI: https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1007/s13164-023-00716-7
2. Pierre JM. Mistrust and misinformation: A two component, socioepistemic model of belief in conspiracy theories. Journal of Social and Political Psychology 2020, 8, 617–641.
3. Sunstein CR, Vermeule A. Conspiracy theories: Causes and cures. The Journal of Political Philosophy 2009; 17: 202–237.
4. Keeley BL. Conspiracy theorists are not the problem; Conspiracy liars are. Inquiry 2024: 1–21. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/0020174X.2024.2375771
5. Nicholas P. Trump needs conspiracy theories. The Atlantic, November 19, 2019.
6. Clinton J, Roush C. Poll: “Persistent partisan divide over ‘birther’ question.” NBC News, August 10, 2016.
7. Cillizza C. This is one of the most dangerous things Donald Trump has done as president. CNN.com, August 21, 2020.
8. Vazquez M. Trump again refuses to denounce QAnon. CNN.com, October 15, 2020.
9. Follman M. Trump’s baseless claims about the assassination attempt are dangerous. Mother Jones, August 29, 2024.
10. Rosenblum B, Muirhead R. A lot of people are saying: The new conspiracism and the assault on democracy. Princeton University Press, 2019.
